PATTERN+ PREDICTIONS
Updated

Month archive · 2019-02

February 2019: 6 recorded events

February 2019 holds 6 recorded events: 0 listings, 0 futures listings, 0 unlocks, 0 hacks and 0 rounds.

Events

6

recorded in February 2019

Listings

0

spot pairs opened

Perpetual listings

0

futures instruments opened

Unlocks

0

token-days with a release

Hacks

0

on record

Rounds

0

funding rounds

Typical after 30 days

—

no spot listing this month

← January 2019 · March 2019 →

The month in shortON RECORD

The month in short

as of · generated from the events of February 2019

  • Best day-30 outcome: Bitcoin Extreme fear: Fear & Greed Index at 14 (+11.3%); worst: Bitcoin Bitcoin mining difficulty +0.17% (−4.1%).
  • The previous month (January 2019) held 11 events, more than February 2019.
  • Also recorded: 2 Bitcoin difficulty adjustments, 1 extreme fear reading, 1 Wikipedia attention spike, 1 Bitcoin options expiry and 1 network upgrade.

Every eventMEASURED

Every event in February 2019

as of · events with effects

6 events grouped by day; 5 carry a measured day-30 outcome and each row links to the event's row on the token page.

6 events grouped by day, oldest first; scheduled rows show when their price move can be measured
DateEventToken7d beforeNext day7 days30 daysvs BTC90 daysSource
extreme fear reading Extreme fear: Fear & Greed Index at 14 Bitcoin (BTC) +1.8% −2.1% +4.0% +11.3% 0.0% +68.4% macro
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index (alternative.me) read 14 of 100, the first reading at or below 15 in over 14 days. It is published at 00:00 UTC; the move is Bitcoin's, from that moment's close. On Feb 6, 2019 BTC saw an extreme fear reading; it fell 2.1% by day 1 and was 11.3% higher 30 days later, 0 points behind BTC; it had moved +1.8% in the 7 days before.
Bitcoin difficulty adjustment Bitcoin mining difficulty +4.25% Bitcoin (BTC) +4.6% −0.9% +0.1% +5.9% 0.0% +93.1% macro
Bitcoin's mining difficulty retargeted by +4.25% at block 562,464 (mempool.space). The move is Bitcoin's, from the close before that day. On Feb 10, 2019 BTC saw a Bitcoin difficulty adjustment; it fell 0.9% by day 1 and was 5.9% higher 30 days later, 0 points behind BTC; it had moved +4.6% in the 7 days before.
Wikipedia attention spike Attention spike: 1,166 read STABLE's Wikipedia article, 4.7x usual 4.7% of circ. Stable (STABLE) — — — — — — wikipedia
1,166 people read the Wikipedia article 'Stablecoin' on 2019-02-15, 4.7 times the median day of the 28 days before. Wikimedia publishes a day's count within a day of its end, so the event is dated 2019-02-17: the move is the coin's from the close a full day after the day it counts. STABLE saw a Wikipedia attention spike on Feb 17, 2019; the price series does not cover the 30-day window, so no effect is measured.
Bitcoin options expiry Bitcoin monthly options expiry Bitcoin (BTC) +9.7% +4.6% −2.9% +1.4% 0.0% +99.4% macro
Deribit's monthly Bitcoin options expire at 08:00 UTC. The move is Bitcoin's, from the close before the expiry day. On Feb 22, 2019 BTC saw a Bitcoin options expiry; it rose 4.6% by day 1 and was 1.4% higher 30 days later, 0 points behind BTC; it had moved +9.7% in the 7 days before.
Bitcoin difficulty adjustment Bitcoin mining difficulty +0.17% Bitcoin (BTC) +13.8% −7.0% −7.5% −4.1% 0.0% +94.9% macro
Bitcoin's mining difficulty retargeted by +0.17% at block 564,480 (mempool.space). The move is Bitcoin's, from the close before that day. On Feb 24, 2019 BTC saw a Bitcoin difficulty adjustment; it fell 7.0% by day 1 and was 4.1% lower 30 days later, 0 points behind BTC; it had moved +13.8% in the 7 days before.
network upgrade Constantinople and St. Petersburg Ethereum (ETH) −9.0% +0.2% +1.3% +5.5% −2.1% +99.1% network
Constantinople and St. Petersburg, a network upgrade (ethereum.org: The history of Ethereum (every network upgrade and its mainnet date)). The move is the coin's, from the close before that day. On Feb 28, 2019 ETH saw a network upgrade; it rose 0.2% by day 1 and was 5.5% higher 30 days later, 2 points behind BTC; it had moved −9.0% in the 7 days before.

Source: CoinPaprika, DefiLlama, exchange announcements and instrument APIs; effects by PatternPlus · fetched

  • On Feb 6, 2019 BTC saw an extreme fear reading (Extreme fear: Fear & Greed Index at 14);
  • it fell 2.1% by day 1 and was 11.3% higher 30 days later, level with BTC;
  • by day 90 it was 68.4% higher (it had moved +1.8% in the 7 days before).
  • On Feb 10, 2019 BTC saw a Bitcoin difficulty adjustment (Bitcoin mining difficulty +4.25%);
  • it fell 0.9% by day 1 and was 5.9% higher 30 days later, level with BTC;
  • by day 90 it was 93.1% higher (it had moved +4.6% in the 7 days before).
  • On Feb 28, 2019 ETH saw a network upgrade (Constantinople and St. Petersburg);
  • it rose 0.2% by day 1 and was 5.5% higher 30 days later, 2 points behind BTC;
  • by day 90 it was 99.1% higher (it had moved −9.0% in the 7 days before).
  • On Feb 24, 2019 BTC saw a Bitcoin difficulty adjustment (Bitcoin mining difficulty +0.17%);
  • it fell 7.0% by day 1 and was 4.1% lower 30 days later, level with BTC;
  • by day 90 it was 94.9% higher (it had moved +13.8% in the 7 days before).
  • On Feb 22, 2019 BTC saw a Bitcoin options expiry (Bitcoin monthly options expiry);
  • it rose 4.6% by day 1 and was 1.4% higher 30 days later, level with BTC;
  • by day 90 it was 99.4% higher (it had moved +9.7% in the 7 days before).

Month statisticsMEASURED

Month statistics against the all-time medians

as of · event_stats

4 exchange-and-kind pairs had a measured event in February 2019; the all-time median is printed beside the month's own.

VenueKindThis month nThis month median 30 daysAll-time nAll-time median 30 daysAll-time up after 30 days
all venuesBitcoin difficulty adjustment2+0.9%203+2.4%55.7%
all venuesextreme fear reading1+11.3%20−2.6%40.0%
all venuesBitcoin options expiry1+1.4%92+2.5%56.5%
all venuesnetwork upgrade1+5.5%16−0.5%50.0%
  • A month median over fewer than five events is printed but carries less weight than the all-time column.