How often it went up26 measured cases
These odds in plain words
as of · counted from every past case of this pattern
Listings of mid-cap tokens outside the big categories: 26 of the 94 past cases on record have a measured next-day move, and 13 of those 26 closed higher — a base rate of 50%, with a 90% range of 35% to 65%, counted as of Oct 3, 2026.
- By day 30, 9 of the 26 cases measured that far were still above the close before the event (35%).
- The typical day-30 move was −7.1%, the best +268.8% and the worst −48.1%.
- Against Bitcoin over the same 30-day windows, the typical case ran −14.9% vs BTC and beat it in 25.0% of 24 comparable cases.
- Recent-cases check: this pattern flipped — older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 44% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 60% of the time, so the two halves of the record disagree about its direction.
Source: every past event of this kind and the price move measured after it · fetched
Coming upON RECORD
Coming up: scheduled events that match this pattern
as of · upcoming events
NO DATA YET No scheduled spot listing meets every condition of this pattern as of Oct 3, 2026.
Every past case94 cases
Every past spot listing behind these odds
as of · events and their measured price moves
All 94 past cases behind the numbers above, newest first. Each row links to the event on its token's page, and a row not measured yet shows when its window closes.
| Date | Token | Venue / size | Next day | 30 days | vs BTC | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ||||||
| Stacks (STX) | Binance | +25.5% | in 15 days | in 15 days | up next day | |
| Venice Token (VVV) | OKX | — | in 12 days | in 12 days | not measured yet | |
| Aerodrome Finance (AERO) | Binance | −3.8% | −13.5% | −12.0% | down next day | |
| BitTensor (TAO) | OKX | −2.8% | −7.8% | −15.3% | down next day | |
| Gram (prev. Toncoin) (GRAM) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| GRASS (GRASS) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Canton Network (CC) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Lighter (LIT) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| 2025 | ||||||
| Midnight (NIGHT) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Dash (DASH) | OKX | +7.8% | −31.5% | −31.5% | up next day | |
| Virtuals Protocol (VIRTUAL) | OKX | +5.8% | −29.9% | −10.0% | up next day | |
| Aster (ASTER) | OKX | −6.4% | +1.9% | +14.8% | down next day | |
| Ethena (ENA) | OKX | +3.8% | −34.3% | −20.7% | up next day | |
| PAX Gold (PAXG) | OKX | +6.2% | −2.4% | +13.9% | up next day | |
| Aster (ASTER) | Binance | −0.9% | −48.1% | −32.2% | sideways next day | |
| Ethena (ENA) | OKX | +0.0% | −37.6% | −28.7% | sideways next day | |
| Sky (SKY) | OKX | — | −24.6% | −21.6% | not measured yet | |
| Pump.fun (PUMP) | Binance | +5.5% | −36.2% | −33.3% | up next day | |
| Ethena USDe (USDE) | Binance | −0.0% | −0.1% | −8.6% | sideways next day | |
| USD1 (USD1) | OKX | +0.0% | +0.0% | −10.3% | sideways next day | |
| Official World Liberty Financial (WLFI) | OKX | −2.7% | −11.9% | −21.5% | down next day | |
| Official World Liberty Financial (WLFI) | Binance | −2.7% | −11.9% | −21.5% | down next day | |
| Pump.fun (PUMP) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Global Dollar (USDG) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| USD1 (USD1) | Binance | +0.0% | −0.0% | +6.8% | sideways next day | |
| Jito Staked SOL (JITOSOL) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Ondo (ONDO) | Binance | +1.3% | +16.2% | −14.5% | up next day | |
| Virtuals Protocol (VIRTUAL) | Binance | +16.2% | +268.8% | +238.0% | up next day | |
| Pi Network (PI) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| 2024 | ||||||
| Pudgy Penguins (PENGU) | OKX | +24.2% | +14.1% | +19.8% | up next day | |
| Morpho (MORPHO) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| PayPal USD (PYUSD) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Polygon Ecosystem Token (POL) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Ondo (ONDO) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Render (RENDER) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| BitTensor (TAO) | Binance | −13.8% | −39.9% | −26.0% | down next day | |
| Ether.fi (ETHFI) | OKX | −3.2% | +13.4% | +23.8% | down next day | |
| Pyth Network (PYTH) | Binance | −1.9% | +41.4% | −5.1% | down next day | |
| Jupiter Exchange Token (JUP) | OKX | −9.0% | −7.1% | −52.4% | down next day | |
| Jupiter Exchange Token (JUP) | Binance | −9.0% | −7.1% | −52.4% | down next day | |
| 2023 | ||||||
| Injective Protocol (INJ) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Artificial Superintelligence Alliance (FET) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Pyth Network (PYTH) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Filecoin (FIL) | Binance | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Arbitrum (ARB) | Binance | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Sui (SUI) | Binance | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Worldcoin (WLD) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Worldcoin (WLD) | Binance | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Arbitrum (ARB) | Binance | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Pepe (PEPE) | Binance | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Sui (SUI) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Sui (SUI) | Binance | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Pepe (PEPE) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Arbitrum (ARB) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Arbitrum (ARB) | Binance | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Singularity NET (AGIX) | Binance | — | +15.6% | — | not measured yet | |
| Aptos (APT) | Binance | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Flare Network (FLR) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| 2022 | ||||||
| Aptos (APT) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Aptos (APT) | Binance | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Filecoin (FIL) | Binance | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Tether Gold (XAUT) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Lighter (LIT) | Binance | −7.4% | +7.9% | — | down next day | |
| Algorand (ALGO) | Binance | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Nexo (NEXO) | Binance | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Curve DAO Token (CRV) | Binance | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Cosmos (ATOM) | Binance | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Internet Computer (ICP) | Binance | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| 2021 | ||||||
| Raydium (RAY) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Avalanche (AVAX) | Binance | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Raydium (RAY) | Binance | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Quant (QNT) | Binance | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Internet Computer (ICP) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Internet Computer (ICP) | Binance | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Shiba Inu (SHIB) | Binance | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Shiba Inu (SHIB) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Stacks (STX) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | Binance | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Aave (AAVE) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Algorand (ALGO) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Cosmos (ATOM) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Avalanche (AVAX) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Cronos (CRO) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Ethereum Classic (ETC) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Filecoin (FIL) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Hedera Hashgraph (HBAR) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| OKB (OKB) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Curve DAO Token (CRV) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| 2020 | ||||||
| Filecoin (FIL) | Binance | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Avalanche (AVAX) | Binance | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| PAX Gold (PAXG) | Binance | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Curve DAO Token (CRV) | Binance | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| JUST (JST) | Binance | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Dai (DAI) | Binance | +0.3% | — | — | sideways next day | |
Source: every event whose token matched the pattern at the time; price moves measured by PatternPlus · fetched
How this is counted
How these odds are counted
as of · methodology
This page is a count of 26 measured past cases, not advice. A pattern is a set of conditions on an event and its token at the time (category group and market-cap bucket), kept once 8 of its cases have a measured next-day move.
- Every share comes with a 90% range (a Wilson interval).
- Patterns with 20 or more measured cases are counted again on their older 60% and newest 40% of cases, and a pattern whose majority side flips is flagged as flipped.
- Past patterns can stop working.
The full method — how patterns are built, the 90% ranges, the recent-cases check and the minimum number of cases — is on the methodology page.
Questions
Questions about this pattern
as of · answers generated from this count
- What does the 50% figure on this page mean?
- It is a base rate: 13 of the 26 measured past cases of listings of mid-cap tokens outside the big categories closed above the close before the event one day later, counted as of Oct 3, 2026.
- It is a count of the past, with a 90% range of 35% to 65% — not advice, and past patterns can stop working.
- How is a case measured?
- Each case compares the last daily UTC close before the event with the closes 1 and 30 days after it, exactly as on every event list on this site.
- The vs-BTC column subtracts Bitcoin's move over the same 30 days.
- Why does this pattern exist and others not?
- A pattern is kept only once at least 8 past cases have a measured next-day move.
- This one has 26.
- Narrower combinations of the same conditions with fewer than 8 cases are left out, and their cases stay counted in the broader pattern.
- What does the recent-cases check say here?
- The record was split 60/40 by date: older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 44% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 60% of the time.
- A flipped flag means the older and newer halves of the record disagree about the direction.
- Where do the 94 cases come from?
- From this site's own event history: every spot listing with a known date whose token met the pattern's conditions at the time, with its moves measured from CoinPaprika daily closes.
- The full list, with dates, is on this page.