How often it went up13 measured cases
These odds in plain words
as of · counted from every past case of this pattern
Hacks of micro-cap tokens with BTC above its 50-day average: 13 of the 36 past cases on record have a measured next-day move, and 4 of those 13 closed higher — a base rate of 31%, with a 90% range of 15% to 54%, counted as of Oct 3, 2026.
- By day 30, 3 of the 13 cases measured that far were still above the close before the event (23%).
- The typical day-30 move was −19.5%, the best +31.4% and the worst −60.7%.
- Against Bitcoin over the same 30-day windows, the typical case ran −24.7% vs BTC and beat it in 30.8% of 13 comparable cases.
- No recent-cases check yet: it needs 20 measured cases and this pattern has 13 as of Oct 3, 2026.
Source: every past event of this kind and the price move measured after it · fetched
Coming upON RECORD
Coming up: scheduled events that match this pattern
as of · upcoming events
NO DATA YET Bitcoin's trend on a future day is only known on that day, so no scheduled hack can be matched to this pattern before it happens.
Scheduled ones without the BTC condition: Hacks of micro-cap tokens →
Every past case36 cases
Every past hack behind these odds
as of · events and their measured price moves
All 36 past cases behind the numbers above, newest first. Each row links to the event on its token's page, and a row not measured yet shows when its window closes.
| Date | Token | Venue / size | Next day | 30 days | vs BTC | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ||||||
| Nimiq (NIM) | — | — | in 13 days | in 13 days | not measured yet | |
| Ankr (ANKR) | — | +0.8% | +27.0% | +19.3% | sideways next day | |
| Radix (XRD) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Avici (AVICI) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Moonwell (WELL) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Nesa (NES) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| BounceBit (BB) | — | −11.7% | −19.5% | −44.5% | down next day | |
| Oraichain Token (ORAI) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Ravencoin (RVN) | — | +1.7% | −13.2% | −38.1% | up next day | |
| Panther Protocol (ZKP) | — | −0.4% | +7.5% | −16.0% | sideways next day | |
| BankrCoin (BNKR) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Wanchain (WAN) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Across Protocol (ACX) | — | +3.0% | −0.8% | +0.6% | up next day | |
| Test (TST) | — | −0.9% | +31.4% | +34.5% | sideways next day | |
| BarnBridge (BOND) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| MAP Protocol (MAPO) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| BankrCoin (BNKR) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Adshares (ADS) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| TAC Protocol (TAC) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Syndicate (SYND) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| ZetaChain (ZETA) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| KernelDAO (KERNEL) | — | −18.3% | −24.8% | −24.7% | down next day | |
| 2025 | ||||||
| Spell Token (SPELL) | — | −3.1% | −38.6% | −25.8% | down next day | |
| SuperRare (RARE) | — | −11.4% | −1.2% | +5.7% | down next day | |
| ALEX Lab (ALEX) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Usual (USUAL) | — | +3.1% | −52.1% | −49.8% | up next day | |
| Cetus Protocol (CETUS) | — | −26.6% | −60.7% | −53.8% | down next day | |
| KiloEx (KILO) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| 2024 | ||||||
| Vestra DAO (VSTR1) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Echelon Prime (PRIME) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Echelon Prime (PRIME) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Loopring (LRC) | — | −7.6% | −35.6% | −19.3% | down next day | |
| ALEX Lab (ALEX) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Zest Protocol (ZEST) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Dolomite (DOLO) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Mobox (MBOX) | — | −18.2% | −44.0% | −36.0% | down next day | |
Source: every event whose token matched the pattern at the time; price moves measured by PatternPlus · fetched
How this is counted
How these odds are counted
as of · methodology
This page is a count of 13 measured past cases, not advice. A pattern is a set of conditions on an event and its token at the time (market-cap bucket and BTC regime), kept once 8 of its cases have a measured next-day move.
- Every share comes with a 90% range (a Wilson interval).
- Patterns with 20 or more measured cases are counted again on their older 60% and newest 40% of cases, and a pattern whose majority side flips is flagged as flipped.
- Past patterns can stop working.
The full method — how patterns are built, the 90% ranges, the recent-cases check and the minimum number of cases — is on the methodology page.
Questions
Questions about this pattern
as of · answers generated from this count
- What does the 31% figure on this page mean?
- It is a base rate: 4 of the 13 measured past cases of hacks of micro-cap tokens with BTC above its 50-day average closed above the close before the event one day later, counted as of Oct 3, 2026.
- It is a count of the past, with a 90% range of 15% to 54% — not advice, and past patterns can stop working.
- How is a case measured?
- Each case compares the last daily UTC close before the event with the closes 1 and 30 days after it, exactly as on every event list on this site.
- The vs-BTC column subtracts Bitcoin's move over the same 30 days.
- Why does this pattern exist and others not?
- A pattern is kept only once at least 8 past cases have a measured next-day move.
- This one has 13.
- Narrower combinations of the same conditions with fewer than 8 cases are left out, and their cases stay counted in the broader pattern.
- What does the recent-cases check say here?
- Nothing yet — the split needs 20 measured cases and this pattern has 13.
- A flipped flag means the older and newer halves of the record disagree about the direction.
- Where do the 36 cases come from?
- From this site's own event history: every hack with a known date whose token met the pattern's conditions at the time, with its moves measured from CoinPaprika daily closes.
- The full list, with dates, is on this page.