How often it went up16 measured cases
These odds in plain words
as of · counted from every past case of this pattern
Bybit listings of micro-cap tokens with BTC below its 50-day average: 16 of the 52 past cases on record have a measured next-day move, and 7 of those 16 closed higher — a base rate of 44%, with a 90% range of 26% to 64%, counted as of Oct 6, 2026.
- By day 30, 7 of the 28 cases measured that far were still above the close before the event (25%).
- The typical day-30 move was −30.2%, the best +77.1% and the worst −82.3%.
- Against Bitcoin over the same 30-day windows, the typical case ran −31.6% vs BTC and beat it in 21.4% of 28 comparable cases.
- No recent-cases check yet: it needs 20 measured cases and this pattern has 16 as of Oct 6, 2026.
Source: every past event of this kind and the price move measured after it · fetched
Coming upON RECORD
Coming up: scheduled events that match this pattern
as of · upcoming events
NO DATA YET Bitcoin's trend on a future day is only known on that day, so no scheduled spot listing can be matched to this pattern before it happens.
Scheduled ones without the BTC condition: Bybit listings of micro-cap tokens →
Every past case52 cases
Every past spot listing behind these odds
as of · events and their measured price moves
All 52 past cases behind the numbers above, newest first. Each row links to the event on its token's page, and a row not measured yet shows when its window closes.
| Date | Token | Venue / size | Next day | 30 days | vs BTC | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ||||||
| Grove Finance (GROVE) | Bybit | −8.9% | −68.1% | −68.6% | down next day | |
| Based (BASED) | Bybit | −24.1% | +9.4% | −5.4% | down next day | |
| Opinion (OPN) | Bybit | −13.4% | −48.2% | −40.9% | down next day | |
| Block Street (BSB) | Bybit | — | +77.1% | +79.9% | not measured yet | |
| Moonbirds (BIRB) | Bybit | −23.8% | −50.1% | −23.9% | down next day | |
| USAT (USAT) | Bybit | +0.0% | −0.3% | +23.3% | sideways next day | |
| 2025 | ||||||
| HumidiFi (WET) | Bybit | +60.7% | −4.9% | −5.4% | up next day | |
| GAIB (GAIB) | Bybit | −29.5% | −76.8% | −71.6% | down next day | |
| Syndicate (SYND) | Bybit | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Recall Network (RECALL) | Bybit | — | −67.5% | −54.1% | not measured yet | |
| Anoma (XAN) | Bybit | — | −82.3% | −80.1% | not measured yet | |
| Holoworld AI (HOLO) | Bybit | — | −71.8% | −72.9% | not measured yet | |
| StraitsX USD (XUSD) | Bybit | +0.0% | +0.0% | −8.6% | sideways next day | |
| Linea (LINEA) | Bybit | — | +14.0% | +3.1% | not measured yet | |
| Veranta (AVNT) | Bybit | — | −26.5% | −37.5% | not measured yet | |
| Succinct (PROVE) | Bybit | +0.2% | −15.3% | −25.5% | sideways next day | |
| Somnia (SOMI) | Bybit | −8.4% | +64.3% | +54.0% | down next day | |
| Mind Network (FHE) | Bybit | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| StablR USD (USDR) | Bybit | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| KiloEx (KILO) | Bybit | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Corn (CORN) | Bybit | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Particle Network (PARTI) | Bybit | +4.7% | −46.4% | −53.8% | up next day | |
| Walrus (WAL) | Bybit | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Quantoz USDQ (USDQ) | Bybit | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Bubblemaps (BMT) | Bybit | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Roam (ROAM) | Bybit | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Vine Coin (VINE) | Bybit | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Pippin (PIPPIN) | Bybit | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Diamante (DIAM) | Bybit | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Avalon (AVL) | Bybit | — | +63.8% | +74.5% | not measured yet | |
| Berachain (BERA) | Bybit | — | −24.0% | −12.7% | not measured yet | |
| aixbt by Virtuals (AIXBT) | Bybit | — | −49.6% | −51.1% | not measured yet | |
| swarms (SWARMS) | Bybit | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Alchemist AI (ALCH) | Bybit | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Cookie (COOKIE) | Bybit | — | −73.3% | −72.8% | not measured yet | |
| Vulcan Forged LAVA (LAVA) | Bybit | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| 2024 | ||||||
| Sonic SVM (SONIC) | Bybit | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Lumia (LUMIA) | Bybit | +1.1% | −33.9% | −44.6% | up next day | |
| aixbt by Virtuals (AIXBT) | Bybit | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| First Neiro On Ethereum (NEIRO) | Bybit | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Dogs (DOGS) | Bybit | — | −19.9% | −25.8% | not measured yet | |
| Dogs (DOGS) | Bybit | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Moonwell (WELL) | Bybit | −9.3% | −41.5% | −45.4% | down next day | |
| Test (TST) | Bybit | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Blast Token (BLAST) | Bybit | — | −41.2% | −50.3% | not measured yet | |
| BounceBit (BB) | Bybit | −17.6% | +18.2% | +7.1% | down next day | |
| PONKE (PONKE) | Bybit | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| TARS AI (TAI) | Bybit | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Zentry (ZENT) | Bybit | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Access Protocol (ACS) | Bybit | +2.5% | −10.5% | −17.0% | up next day | |
| cat in a dogs world (MEW) | Bybit | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Omni Network (OMNI) | Bybit | −7.8% | −44.2% | −49.3% | down next day | |
Source: every event whose token matched the pattern at the time; price moves measured by PatternPlus · fetched
How this is counted
How these odds are counted
as of · methodology
This page is a count of 16 measured past cases, not advice. A pattern is a set of conditions on an event and its token at the time (venue, market-cap bucket and BTC regime), kept once 8 of its cases have a measured next-day move.
- Every share comes with a 90% range (a Wilson interval).
- Patterns with 20 or more measured cases are counted again on their older 60% and newest 40% of cases, and a pattern whose majority side flips is flagged as flipped.
- Past patterns can stop working.
The full method — how patterns are built, the 90% ranges, the recent-cases check and the minimum number of cases — is on the methodology page.
Questions
Questions about this pattern
as of · answers generated from this count
- What does the 44% figure on this page mean?
- It is a base rate: 7 of the 16 measured past cases of bybit listings of micro-cap tokens with BTC below its 50-day average closed above the close before the event one day later, counted as of Oct 6, 2026.
- It is a count of the past, with a 90% range of 26% to 64% — not advice, and past patterns can stop working.
- How is a case measured?
- Each case compares the last daily UTC close before the event with the closes 1 and 30 days after it, exactly as on every event list on this site.
- The vs-BTC column subtracts Bitcoin's move over the same 30 days.
- Why does this pattern exist and others not?
- A pattern is kept only once at least 8 past cases have a measured next-day move.
- This one has 16.
- Narrower combinations of the same conditions with fewer than 8 cases are left out, and their cases stay counted in the broader pattern.
- What does the recent-cases check say here?
- Nothing yet — the split needs 20 measured cases and this pattern has 16.
- A flipped flag means the older and newer halves of the record disagree about the direction.
- Where do the 52 cases come from?
- From this site's own event history: every spot listing with a known date whose token met the pattern's conditions at the time, with its moves measured from CoinPaprika daily closes.
- The full list, with dates, is on this page.