What moves SWAP · PROVEN · measured Oct 7, 2026
When it rose three times its usual daily move, SWAP ended lower a week later more often than on any day
Found in 14 cases in SWAP's history, the latest Aug 5, 2026. Out of sample it has no clear edge: calls like it, made only from what was known before each one, were right 67% of 49 calls since 2023, against 54% for that side on any day. Past patterns, not financial advice.
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Out of sample
No clear edge
right 67% of 49 calls since 2023, against 54% for that side on any day
Cases
14
in its history, the latest Aug 5, 2026
How it is proven
SWAP is tested on its own history every night: each cause against SWAP's own moves from any day, its biggest days capped, so one giant pump cannot make a driver. Proven means past the cut for testing thousands of causes at once, both halves of its history leaning the same way, SWAP ending lower more often than on any day by a clear margin, and 12 cases or more.
Proven on the whole history is not the same as right the next time. So the discovery is also re-run as it stood at the start of each calendar quarter, on what came before it only, and the quarter after it is called with what it found; a kind of finding earns a call on the site only when counting every day once, its side was right more often than that same side won on any day of the coin's quarter, in both halves of the quarters walked, at a Newey-West t of 1.645 or more, on 100 or more scored calls over 60 or more separate days, and the average move on the call's side was above 0% before fees, overall and in both halves.
Source: SWAP's own daily closes, its events and the market-wide releases on record · measured · the method in full