What moves HARD · PROVEN · measured Oct 6, 2026
When it rose three times its usual daily move, HARD ended lower a week later 88% of the time
Against 50% on any day, from 17 cases (it ended higher in 12% of them); the latest was Mar 6, 2025. On average HARD moved −13.0% a week later, against +0.2% on any day. Past patterns, not financial advice.
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After it
88%
ended lower a week later
On any day
50%
the same coin, from any day
Cases
17
the latest Mar 6, 2025
Average move
−13.0%
against +0.2% on any day
How it is proven
HARD is tested on its own history every night: each cause against HARD's own moves from any day, its biggest days capped, so one giant pump cannot make a driver. Proven means past the cut for testing thousands of causes at once, both halves of its history leaning the same way, HARD ending lower more often than on any day by a clear margin, and 12 cases or more.
Source: HARD's own daily closes, its events and the market-wide releases on record · measured · the method in full