What moves ARPA · PROVEN · measured Oct 6, 2026
When it closed back above its 200-day average, ARPA ended lower the next day 92% of the time
Against 51% on any day, from 12 cases (it ended higher in 8% of them); the latest was Sep 12, 2026. On average ARPA moved −5.8% the next day, against −0.2% on any day. Past patterns, not financial advice.
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After it
92%
ended lower the next day
On any day
51%
the same coin, from any day
Cases
12
the latest Sep 12, 2026
Average move
−5.8%
against −0.2% on any day
How it is proven
ARPA is tested on its own history every night: each cause against ARPA's own moves from any day, its biggest days capped, so one giant pump cannot make a driver. Proven means past the cut for testing thousands of causes at once, both halves of its history leaning the same way, ARPA ending lower more often than on any day by a clear margin, and 12 cases or more.
Source: ARPA's own daily closes, its events and the market-wide releases on record · measured · the method in full